Oil prices broke above $100 per barrel Monday, and traders betting real money now think Americans will pay more at the pump this year than at any point since the 2022 price spike.
Gas hit $4.56 per gallon in May, according to AAA’s national average. Traders on prediction market Kalshi now see a 71% chance prices will surpass $4.60 before the year ends. They place 57% odds on $4.80, and better than 40% odds that gas crosses $5.00 per gallon — a threshold last seen in June 2022.
Iran Tensions Push Crude Higher
The surge follows escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran that threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that carries a fifth of the world’s oil supply. West Texas Intermediate crude futures jumped 3.5% Monday to more than $103 per barrel.
Kalshi contracts resolve based on AAA data, meaning traders are putting money behind their forecasts. The platform functions as a real-time poll of people willing to back their predictions with cash.
Election Day Outlook
Higher prices appear likely to last through November. Kalshi traders place even odds that gas will still cost more than $4.25 per gallon on Election Day, November 3.
That timeline matters for household budgets already stretched by three years of elevated costs. A family filling a 15-gallon tank weekly would spend roughly $3,600 annually at $4.60 per gallon, compared to $2,340 at pre-pandemic averages near $3.00.
The prediction markets suggest relief won’t come before voters head to the polls. If prices do breach $5.00, it would mark only the second time in history Americans faced that threshold, and the first time it lasted beyond a brief summer spike.
Key Points
- Traders bet 71% chance gas tops $4.60 this year, surpassing May’s $4.56 peak
- Oil broke $103 per barrel as U.S.-Iran conflict threatens critical shipping lane
- Even odds gas stays above $4.25 through Election Day on November 3
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/prediction-markets-traders-think-gas-prices-will-hit-new-highs-in-2026.html – September 14, 2026
