Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton trails his Democratic challenger by three points in a new poll of the state’s 2026 Senate race, a surprising result in a contest that could reshape the balance of power in Washington.
The NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group survey shows State Representative James Talarico with 46 percent support among registered voters, compared to 43 percent for Paxton. A Libertarian candidate drew 3 percent, while 8 percent remain undecided with less than seven weeks until Election Day.
Paxton Faces Headwinds Despite Republican Edge
The tight margin comes despite Texas’s Republican lean in recent statewide elections. Paxton, who has served as attorney general since 2015, has built a national profile fighting Biden administration policies on immigration and energy. But he’s also faced persistent legal troubles, including a 2015 securities fraud indictment that remains unresolved and impeachment charges brought by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023, though he was acquitted by the state Senate.
Talarico, 35, represents a suburban Austin district and has positioned himself as a moderate Democrat focused on public education funding and property tax relief. His campaign has hammered Paxton over the legal controversies and questioned his effectiveness while facing criminal charges.
National Stakes in Lone Star Battle
Republicans currently hold a narrow Senate majority, making every competitive race critical for control of the chamber. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but Democrats have invested heavily in the state after closer-than-expected results in recent cycles. Former Representative Beto O’Rourke came within three points of unseating Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.
The poll’s margin of error and methodology details were not immediately available. Early voting in Texas begins October 13, with the general election November 3. Paxton’s campaign has yet to comment on the survey results.
Both campaigns are expected to flood airwaves in the final weeks, with outside groups already spending millions on ads across the state’s expensive media markets.
Key Points
- Democratic challenger James Talarico leads Texas AG Ken Paxton 46-43 percent in new poll
- Race could determine Senate control as Republicans defend narrow majority
- Paxton faces headwinds from ongoing legal troubles including unresolved criminal indictment
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6101881-talarico-leads-paxton-texas-senate-poll/ – September 21, 2026
