Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers says his internal modeling shows him leading Democrat Abdul El-Sayed by seven percentage points among voters who have already returned their ballots in Michigan’s closely watched Senate race. The claim contradicts recent public polling that has favored El-Sayed in the final days before Tuesday’s election.
“We’re actually about seven percent ahead on voters that we believe are voting for us returning their ballots,” Rogers said during a recent campaign appearance. The former congressman did not release the underlying data or methodology behind his campaign’s voter models.
Public Polls Tell Different Story
Rogers’ optimistic assessment contrasts sharply with publicly available polling, which has consistently shown El-Sayed holding an edge in the race to fill Michigan’s open Senate seat. The divergence raises questions about whether Rogers’ campaign has identified a voting pattern invisible to public pollsters, or whether the claim represents an attempt to energize Republican turnout in the race’s closing hours.
Campaign-released internal numbers often paint rosier pictures than independent surveys. Candidates use proprietary voter models that track which registered voters have requested and returned absentee ballots, then estimate their likely preferences based on factors including past voting history, party registration, and demographic data.
What Michigan Voters Should Watch
Michigan allows same-day voter registration and does not require party affiliation for absentee ballot requests, making it harder to predict voter preference from return data alone. Rogers’ campaign would need sophisticated modeling to determine which returned ballots likely came from his supporters versus El-Sayed’s.
The Michigan Secretary of State’s office reports ballot return numbers but does not break them down by likely candidate preference. As of Friday, more than 2.3 million Michigan voters had already cast ballots through early voting or absentee returns.
The race will help determine Senate control, with both parties pouring resources into Michigan during the campaign’s final weekend. Results should begin coming in Tuesday evening after polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
Key Points
- Rogers says campaign modeling shows him ahead by seven points among returned ballots
- Public polling has consistently favored Democratic opponent Abdul El-Sayed
- Michigan’s lack of party registration makes early vote prediction harder to verify
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6186460-rogers-claims-early-ballot-lead/ – October 31, 2026
